Abstract

This research is part of a larger project on modeling national power and security indicators. It involved the method of multidimensional statistical analysis as an integral indicator that characterizes the total potential of each country, as well as the strategic development of its socio-ecological and economic system. The national economic potential in the international trade network was represented as a graph that illustrates the trade flows between countries. The centrality index marked the importance of a particular country in the international trade network, i.e., its ability to affect other countries, and its vulnerability, i.e., its dependence on other countries. The graph took into account the national power of the country, its partner countries, and the commodity circulation between them. The authors used the case of the global pandemic crisis and the local sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 to study the adaptive ability of powerful national economies. The research resulted in two regression models. The model of the economic bloc of the national power took into account the trade volume and the vulnerability index in the international trade network. The model of national GDP growth relied on the growth of the economic bloc of national power, the trade volume, and the increase in exports, as well as the vulnerability index in the international trade network.

Keywords

national power, economic performance, international trade, network analysis, influence and vulnerability of countries in the international trade network, strategy

FUNDING

The study was supported from the Federal Budget, research topic FMGF-2019-0007: Economic and mathematical tools to improve the efficiency of the budget system in the Russian Federation.

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